Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, President Putin has insisted that an end to the war could only occur if the “root causes” of the conflict were addressed. He further argued that Moscow viewed these as non-negotiable and had to be dealt with if a stable peace was to be achieved. Putin has been very consistent with these demands, and they have been frequently echoed by his Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Presidential Press Spokesman Dmitry Peskov, UN Ambassador Vasily Nebenzya, and other Russian officials.
Putin’s “root causes” and demands include:
Ukraine must not be allowed to become a member of NATO or any security bloc in future. This would also preclude Ukraine from the bilateral security arrangements it has negotiated or is in the process of concluding with several European countries.
It is important to remember that then President George W. Bush insisted at the NATO Summit in 2008 that Ukraine and Georgia (both successor states of the Soviet Union) be allowed to join NATO’s membership action program as a prelude to full membership. Following this announcement both countries sent troops to Afghanistan as part of the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF).
Putin has consistently argued that the Zelensky government is “illegitimate” since the Ukrainian elections that were scheduled for April 2024 did not occur. He has insisted that Ukraine’s current government must be dissolved, and national elections conducted to “denazify” the country. His obvious goal is for the new government to be Pro-Russian. Furthermore, Moscow would seek to influence any future election, as it did recently in Georgia and Romania.
Ukraine has conducted national elections seven times since it gained independence in 1991. It has not held an election since the Russian invasion in February 2022, as the Ukrainian constitution requires for election postponement during periods of martial law. In Ukraine, as long as the Russian invasion continues, martial law continues, and elections will continue to be delayed.
Putin has insisted the Ukrainian military must be dramatically reduced in size and cease receiving Western military aid and assistance. Putin has said there must be an “irreversible demilitarization.” Russian officials have said the Ukrainian Army should be limited to roughly 85,000 soldiers (less than one-tenth of its current size) and accept significant limitations in tanks, artillery, and combat aircraft. In essence, Kyiv would be forced to disarm and would be unable to rebuff a future attack.
Ukraine as well as the West must formally recognize the illegal Russian annexation of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson provinces as well as Crimea, which Russia seized in 2014. This is roughly 20 percent of Ukrainian territory and would force Kyiv to withdraw from portions of the four provinces that it still controls. It is interesting to note that President Lukashenko of Belarus only formally recognized Russian sovereignty over Crimea in 2021 – seven years after Moscow invaded.
Russian officials have consistently said that other portions of Ukraine beyond these four provinces are part of “Novorossiya” (a historical and amorphous term that basically means “new Russia”). It includes substantial portions of southern and eastern Ukraine. This includes Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, and Odessa oblasts and the entire Black Sea coast. Obviously, this suggests the possibility that Moscow might reignite this conflict in future to achieve its full territorial ambitions. In a 2023 speech Putin claimed the Black Sea region had nothing “to do with Ukraine.”
Putin has claimed Russia is threatened by NATO expansion since the end of the Cold War. He demands a withdrawal of all NATO forces from former Communist states that are now part of the Alliance (e.g., Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, and Baltic Republics). He has consistently argued that NATO made a commitment not to expand eastward at the end of the Cold (which is untrue) and that has now been violated.
The Russian leader has called for the abolition of Ukrainian laws he alleges are discriminatory to Russian speakers in Ukraine. This includes the Russian language, media, and culture in Ukraine. This demand could be interpreted to include officially changing the names of some cities and towns as well as adopting Russian as an official language of Ukraine.
It is also important to acknowledge that the Trump administration has already made several concessions to Putin, adopted policy shifts helpful to Russia and announced support for other concessions and policy changes. They include the following:
Ukraine would not be allowed to join NATO.
The U.S. position has shifted to Kyiv accepting the formal loss of territory.
No American troops would be involved in any peacekeeping force deployed to Ukraine to enforce a settlement, and future security guarantees for Ukraine will be vague at best.
The United States paused offensive cyber operations against the Russian Federation.
The State Department eliminated the agency that monitors Russian disinformation globally.
Washington disbanded both Radio Free Europe and USAID that were bitterly criticized by the Kremlin.
The Trump administration has halted military aid to Ukraine, and there has been no formal request to Congress for any additional assistance. The Pentagon does still provide Ukraine battlefield intelligence, training, and command/control.
The US ended the effort to monitor the plight of missing Ukrainian children that have been taken to Russia. Washington has also withdrawn from a multinational group conducting war crime investigations associated with the conflict.
The Trump administration has sanctioned the International Criminal Court Prosecutor who issued the arrest warrant against President Putin for war crimes based on Russian aggression against Ukraine.
President Trump has stated his desire to see all economic sanctions against Russia removed and that Mocow be allowed to return to the G7.
The announcement by the Trump administration of a seven-point plan appears aimed at accomplishing three objectives simultaneously – a ceasefire, formal end to the conflict, and renewed diplomatic as well as economic cooperation between the United States and Russia. But it does not address all of Putin’s “root causes.”
Consequently, the Russian president wants major concessions to achieve a ceasefire. This includes recognition of his country’s sovereignty over occupied territory and a formal rejection by both Kyiv and the West of Ukraine ever joining NATO. Negotiations would then commence that would result in a formal settlement and include solutions to the remaining “root causes” of the war.