The NATO Summit of 2025: Transformation, Tensions, and the New Burdens for Defense

The NATO Summit of 2025: Transformation, Tensions, and the New Burdens for Defense

The NATO Summit held on June 25, 2025, was the shortest in the alliance’s history—and yet, perhaps one of the most consequential. In less than 24 hours, leaders of the 32-member alliance endorsed a communiqué that outlined a dramatic reorientation of NATO’s strategic and financial posture. Secretary General Mark Rutte hailed it as “transformational,” citing a new defense spending target, pledges to ramp up military-industrial capacity, and an “ironclad” recommitment to collective defense under Article V.

But behind the polished language lies a more complex story: one of political compromise, shifting transatlantic power dynamics, and unresolved tensions over Ukraine, nuclear strategy, and industrial sovereignty. While the summit avoided the rupture many feared under President Donald Trump’s second term, it may ultimately be remembered less for its declarations and more for its omissions and ambiguities…

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The Future of U.S.-India Relations: Allies by interest, not by design

The Future of U.S.-India Relations: Allies by interest, not by design

For all the geopolitical fanfare that surrounds the U.S.-India relationship — the shared democratic identity, the pivot to Asia, common concerns about an aggressive China — this remains a partnership with limits. It is forged more by converging interests than shared grand strategies. It is stable, but brittle. Warm, but cautious. And after the 2025 Pahalgam crisis, it faces its most intense test yet.

The U.S.-India relationship matters already, and its importance will grow in future. India is the world’s fastest-growing major economy. It’s critical to global supply chains, arms trade, and regional maritime stability. But India is also increasingly nationalistic, militarily assertive, resistant to external influence (including from Washington) and in many ways encumbered by its past.

As the recent crisis in Kashmir revealed, the U.S. may believe India is a cornerstone of its evolving Indo-Pacific strategy. But India doesn’t see itself as a cornerstone of anything but its own grand design. And, sadly, its inability to establish a stable relationship with Pakistan may threaten Washington’s ability and willingness to expand relations…

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Here's what President Trump should say to those graduating from West Point

Here's what President Trump should say to those graduating from West Point

On Saturday, President Donald Trump delivers the commencement address to the class of 2025 at the United States Military Academy at West Point. Presidents normally deliver graduation remarks at one of our nation’s service academies each year. Trump spoke to the class of 2020 during his first term.

Commencement speeches are difficult. They are intended to celebrate the students upon their graduation and offer words of encouragement and guidance as they transition into the next phase of their lives. I imagine most speakers hope they might say something that graduates will remember in future, but we must admit that most fail.

But military academy graduations are unique. Unlike other college graduations, every cadet about to receive a diploma knows what their first job is going to be and where.

I was one of those cadets over 50 years ago and remember the day well. Our speaker was Gen. William Westmoreland, who had recently returned from command in Vietnam and assumed responsibilities as Army chief of staff.

All my classmates were excited that the day we had long awaited had finally arrived. Each of us privately had a bit of trepidation about what the future might bring. We also knew it was the last time we would all be together. So, if I were able to tell Trump or his speechwriters what suggestions might I make?

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Pete Hegseth's reason for dismissing top-ranking military leaders makes no sense

Pete Hegseth's reason for dismissing top-ranking military leaders makes no sense

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s plan to dismiss 10% of active duty general or flag officers and eliminate 20% of four-star general officer positions in the active-duty military was announced in a memo that says the Pentagon “must cultivate exceptional senior leaders who drive innovation and operational excellence.” But we’re all left wondering: What problem does this planned reduction solve? Or is it the Trump administration’s indictment of the current senior leadership of the United States military?

What analysis was conducted that resulted in these proposed reductions, or are they just arbitrary percentages? The American public deserves to know the strategy that’s motivating this plan.

The Pentagon’s May 5 memorandum for senior leadership also directed a 20% reduction in general officers in the National Guard. Said memo provides few details on how this is to be effected and sets no deadline. But this effort will unquestionably have a profound impact not only on our nation’s military leadership but also the direction of American national security policy in the future…

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Putin's "Root Causes" of Ukraine War

Putin's "Root Causes" of Ukraine War

Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, President Putin has insisted that an end to the war could only occur if the “root causes” of the conflict were addressed. He further argued that Moscow viewed these as non-negotiable and had to be dealt with if a stable peace was to be achieved. Putin has been very consistent with these demands, and they have been frequently echoed by his Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Presidential Press Spokesman Dmitry Peskov, UN Ambassador Vasily Nebenzya, and other Russian officials…

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Trump bets big on Tehran: What's at stake in the Iran nuclear talks

Trump bets big on Tehran: What's at stake in the Iran nuclear talks

The motorcade of Donald Trump’s nuclear envoy, Steve Witkoff, was delayed on the way to the Omani ambassador’s residence in Rome, where the United States was set to begin negotiations with Iran. His car missed the driveway, backed into a tight street, before it had to circle around again. As far as metaphors go, it was almost too perfect. This is Trump’s Iran policy in 2025: hurried, high-stakes, and dangerously imprecise…

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Aftershocks: The Second Order Effects of Trump Defense Policies

Aftershocks: The Second Order Effects of Trump Defense Policies

In just over 60 days, President Donald Trump’s new administration has released a seismic shock on the foundations of American foreign and defense policy. What had once seemed unshakable pillars – NATO solidarity, transatlantic security commitments, nuclear non-proliferation policies, and trusted intelligence alliances – are now in visible disarray. While the immediate shifts have made headlines, second-order consequences are quietly but profoundly reshaping the geopolitical order. Nowhere are these reverberations more visible than in Europe, where decades of strategic assumptions are being rapidly overturned…

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Germany's election puts it at a crossroad

Germany's election puts it at a crossroad

Germany’s recent elections signaled the beginning of epic change for the country and the continent of Europe. It marked a significant shift in the nation’s political landscape at a time of global uncertainty, and the election followed the extraordinary collapse of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition government. The results reveal that Germany is at a crossroads, with rising populist sentiments, economic stagnation, and critical questions about the country’s role in the European Union, relations with the United States, as well as its impact on both regional and global security.

The focal point is the expected next chancellor, Friedrich Merz, the leader of Germany’s center-right Christian Democrats (CDU). He made clear that the country would be striking out on a new path within hours of his party declaring victory when he made an extraordinary statement on national television. Merz declared Europe was at “five minutes to midnight,” and he intended to “achieve independence from the USA” because it was “clear that the Americans… are largely indifferent to the fate of Europe…”

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Trump-Zelenskyy Oval Office clash heightens anxiety in Pennsylvania (FOX News 43: featuring Dr. Jeff McCausland)

Trump-Zelenskyy Oval Office clash heightens anxiety in Pennsylvania (FOX News 43: featuring Dr. Jeff McCausland)

Author: Sydney Nauman

A high-stakes White House meeting intended to advance peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia instead devolved into a heated confrontation between President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Friday, leaving Pennsylvania's Ukrainian-American community increasingly anxious about their homeland's future.

The Oval Office meeting, which was meant to finalize a deal giving the United States access to Ukraine's valuable rare earth minerals, collapsed after Zelenskyy insisted on stronger security guarantees in any potential peace agreement with Russian President Vladimir Putin…

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Peace in Our Time? Implications of Trump's Ceasefire Negotiations

Peace in Our Time? Implications of Trump's Ceasefire Negotiations

When Vice President JD Vance took the stage at the Munich Security Conference earlier this month, European officials in the room were nervous. Some anticipated rhetoric like Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s earlier remarks in Brussels – that the U.S. was no longer focused on European or Ukrainian security. There were rumors Vance would announce a full U.S. troop withdrawal from Europe, which proved false…

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The Escalating Threat of Hybrid Warfare: A Call for Western Vigilance

The Escalating Threat of Hybrid Warfare: A Call for Western Vigilance

The conflict in Ukraine has been described as a war being fought for 19th century goals, employing 20th century tactics, and using 21st century technology. Moscow’s goal for the war in Ukraine is to resurrect the Russian empire that collapsed with the Bolshevik Revolution in 1917. Battlefield tactics remind us of World War I with mass infantry attacks, heavy reliance on artillery, and the return of “industrial warfare” that has shown Western defense industries ill-prepared. But this conflict has also shown that modern warfare is conducted in new domains and relies on fresh methodologies…

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A ceasefire in Gaza-- What now?

A ceasefire in Gaza-- What now?

The war in Gaza that began on 7 October 2023 has become one of modern history’s most significant Middle East conflicts due to its scale and the humanitarian crisis it sparked. Its legacy will surpass previous regional wars in terms of the human cost, economic devastation, and geopolitical impact on the region. Hamas’ attack resulted in over 1,700 Israeli civilians being murdered and 250 taken as hostages. In response the Israeli Defense Force (IDF) conducted a land and air campaign that killed over 46,000 Palestinians in Gaza alone. Of those killed, at least half were women, children, and the elderly. ..

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Pete Hegseth’s only qualification for defense secretary is fealty to Trump

Pete Hegseth’s only qualification for defense secretary is fealty to Trump

Much of the opposition to former Fox News host Pete Hegseth, whom President-elect Donald Trump has nominated to serve as defense secretary, has centered on allegations that he has abused women and alcohol. Hegseth has denied mistreating women, and he denied a woman’s allegation that he sexually assaulted her in a California hotel room in 2017 and he was never charged in the case. He reached a confidential settlement with his accuser last year. Though he has denied reports that he had a drinking problem that his co-workers noticed, he has promised that he is “not going to have a drink at all” if he is confirmed as defense secretary…

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2025 - A Year of Turbulence

2025 - A Year of Turbulence

2024 was a year of elections, spanning countries with a collective population of more than 4 billion people – about half the world. But these elections do not appear to have ushered in a period of stability, rather 2025 looks to be a year of conflict and turbulence. The attacks in New Orleans and Las Vegas on New Year’s Day, which do not appear to be linked, only illustrate this further…

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A Political Tsunami Strikes Seoul

A Political Tsunami Strikes Seoul

Republic of Korea (ROK) President Yoon Suk Yeol was impeached on 14 December by the National Assembly and faces possible insurrection charges after he suddenly declared martial law earlier this month – a declaration that the country’s parliament almost immediately overturned. Yoon claimed this was a legal decision to "prevent the collapse" of democracy and counter the opposition party’s "parliamentary dictatorship." In a speech to the nation, the embattled president apologized defended his shocking decision and insisted he would “fight until the end.” The country now faces a very public political fight over the next six months while the Constitutional Court decides whether to remove Yoon from office…

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All Wars Must End - Even in Ukraine

All Wars Must End - Even in Ukraine

With the results of the presidential election, American voters made clear that domestic issues should be prioritized over foreign affairs – particularly when it comes to the war in Ukraine. Donald Trump promised voters that he would end the war with Russia within 24 hours of being elected. While he never presented a plan that would convincingly conclude the conflict – and it is likely impossible to end a clash of this magnitude very quickly – it will be a primary concern for him when he returns to the White House next month. Ending this war will be challenging especially since it has escalated significantly since August, and there is little doubt that we face the possibility of global conflict with the possible use of nuclear weapons…

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The Trump Administration and National Security

The Trump Administration and National Security

Donald Trump enjoyed a decisive victory on election day, and with it comes an opportunity to change the direction of US foreign policy and national security strategy. The challenges the president-elect faces are enormous, and the change he effects will have major implications for the ongoing war in the Middle East, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, tensions in the South China Sea, as well as other issues like civil-military relations, trade and immigration…

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I spent 30 years in the military. Trump should be as far away from U.S. armed forces as possible

In October 1973, four days after President Richard Nixon ordered the firing of the special prosecutor investigating the Watergate scandal, America’s global nuclear alert level was raised to DEFCON III — one step short of imminent nuclear war. That raising of the alert level was ostensibly a response to the then-Soviet Union announcing fresh support for Egypt during the Yom Kippur War, which was then going on.

I was a second lieutenant on West Germany’s border with what was then East Germany, and my battalion received orders to load our conventional and nuclear wartime ammunition and prepare for a potential war that could have resulted in global annihilation. Was the decision to go to  DEFCON III driven by national security concerns? Or was it the Nixon White House’s attempt to distract the public from his scandal-plagued presidency?

As we prepare for Tuesday’s election, it's important to remember that we’re not just electing a president, but we are also electing the commander in chief of our armed forces. And we need one we can trust to not use the military inappropriately.

At an Oct. 24, 1973, meeting in the Situation Room, Adm. Thomas Moorer, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, recorded in his diary Secretary of State Henry Kissinger’s remarks that “the Soviets were influenced by the current situation the President finds himself in,” that the Democrats and U.S. public were “laying siege  to their government” and that “we must prevent them from getting away with this.” In private interviews I had with four Nixon officials, including three who were in the Situation Room that night, Nixon felt that he needed to make the news about something other than Watergate.

Remembering how close Nixon brought us to nuclear war is why I say we cannot trust Donald Trump with the presidency. I don’t think he’d hesitate to use his position as commander in chief for his personal and political benefit. We know this because he has promoted policies that threaten our military, democracy and those who call the United States home.

Multiple times in the past month alone, Trump has said he’d use the military against citizens opposed to his candidacy and he has reshared social media posts that suggest bringing his adversaries, including former President Barack Obama and former Republican Rep. Liz Cheney, before military tribunals. He has repeatedly declared that the country’s biggest threat is from his political opponents, whom he has labeled “the enemy from within.”

The thought of Trump exacting retribution by politicizing the American military should terrify us all. It is antithetical to the principles that underpin our democracy, and his plans to do just that should disqualify him from entering the White House again.

The former president has repeatedly insisted that millions of undocumented immigrants must be rounded up and deported. Such a mammoth operation would require the American military, which Trump has promised to use. Imagine using American soldiers to round up, house, guard, transport and deport millions of immigrants. They would be knocking on the doors, searching for anyone who might be undocumented and placing them in camps.

He has also said he would consider using the military for domestic law enforcement in major cities without the involvement of local mayors or governors. These are all policies reminiscent of Nazi Germany, not the United States. 

Because Trump has promised to “weed out military officers” ideologically opposed to him, military officers in the future might be promoted or assigned based solely on party affiliation. The members of our professional military swear an oath to the Constitution, but Trump appears to believe they should pledge a loyalty oath to him.

Trump would be unrestrained during a second term. He’d surround himself with sycophants selected for their total loyalty — not their expertise or their willingness to speak hard truths. The absence of officials willing to “speak truth to power” could be disastrous during a major crisis.  

If Trump follows through with his plans to politicize the military and turn it against the American people, I fear we could witness a mass resignation of senior officers who find such orders contrary to their oath to support the Constitution, and chaos might follow in the ranks at a time of rising global conflicts. Going forward, there might even be massive turnover in the officer corps depending on which political party wins a future election.

This wouldn’t be a professional military focused on the defense of the nation, but a politicized one in which the American people would likely lose trust. And I wouldn’t blame them because, if Trump follows through with his threat, then that military would no longer exist to protect them — it would be a force used to threaten them.

My three-decade military career was defined by continuous training, numerous operations, wars, strategic arms control negotiations and the study of civil-military relations. All these experiences, but especially my study of our civilian government’s relationship with the American military, contributed to my conclusion that Trump is unfit to be president.

Trump has repeatedly demonstrated that he has no respect for the historic relationship between America’s military and civilian leadership — or for honor, duty, service and sacrifice — and his policies will not only erode Americans’ trust in the military, but also put our democracy at the brink of disaster.

Our system of civil-military relations is essential to our military’s professionalism.  The members of our military take an oath to the Constitution — not a military or political leader. This was fundamental to me when I was a young lieutenant in West Germany, commanding troops in combat in Iraq, serving in senior positions in the Pentagon and the White House or teaching the subject to students at West Point, the Naval Academy and the Army War College.

The relationship between America’s civilian and military leadership rests on an implicit “contract” requiring mutual respect, trust, and consultation. The military accepts the final authority of civilian leadership but in return seeks to remain apolitical. Why would we give up something that has served our democracy so well for someone who has served our nation so poorly?

I fear that if we abandon this basic tenet of our democracy, my service and that of other veterans will have been in vain.

Who Will Sound the Call to Service?

A soldier's day was once regulated by bugle calls, from morning reveille to chow call at noon to retreat at sunset and taps late at night. Thus the phrase "to answer the bugle call" has been used to describe citizens responding to a national threat. Those who rise to this call to defend their country are the young, and they sacrifice accordingly.

We witnessed this during World War II with my father's generation. We heard it clearly in the words of John F. Kennedy, who told us to ask not what our country can do for us but what we can do for our country. But we've also witnessed serious divisions.

Our nation has been in a state of war for nearly six years. American forces have been in Iraq for more than four years, a longer commitment than during World War II. A new generation has risen to defend us once again, but strangely this time there has been no bugle call. No leader has made a broad appeal for service in a time of need, and no real request has been made for most Americans to sacrifice in any way. Most of us go about our daily lives unaffected by the trauma and tragedy that occur daily in Iraq and Afghanistan, whether we support the war or oppose it.

But some heard a call and answered. I met a number of them as I traveled to Balad, Iraq, with an air-medical team from Mississippi and California to pick up wounded GIs and Marines and ferry them to the Landstuhl military hospital in Germany and then on to Walter Reed. I met not only these injured but the many others from this generation -- doctors, nurses, pilots, air crews -- who tended to their needs along the way home. These caregivers are unsung heroes, and they treasure the brotherhood they share with their injured comrades. They perform countless acts of kindness and healing to little public acclaim.

All these men and women are truly extraordinary -- the injured and those who care for them. They represent all of America in a mosaic of old and young, male and female, Hispanic, black, Asian, white.

They include a young Minnesota National Guardsman wounded after 14 months in Iraq. His unit had been scheduled to head home but was extended to 15 months. He is 21. Last month he lost both his legs to an explosively formed projectile.

He has a right to be bitter, but he isn't. Two days after his personal tragedy he laughed with me in the hospital and said that when he was hurt he told his sergeant, "I guess this means I won't have to take that PT test you scheduled for me." He did that to keep up the morale of his buddies as they applied the tourniquets that saved his life.

I talked to an intensive care nurse who has been handling severely wounded people for more than five years. As the senior nurse, she stayed with those diagnosed as terminal. She did not want them to die alone, and she placed a personal note with their effects so their families would know that they hadn't.

There was a soldier who had been blown from his tank by an improvised explosive device that broke his back. He was 37 and had recently joined the active Army. He continued to smile as he lay on a pillowcase decorated with scenes from "Superman" and talked about his buddies. He told me that he was sure that his kids were proud of him.

A trauma surgeon who has been operating and saving lives in Afghanistan and Iraq and at the hospital in Germany since the war began told me how he kept his morale so high: by keeping in mind always that he cared for heroes every day.

This account is not pro-war or anti-war. It is simply about war and the terrible tragedy that it is. The people I had the privilege to meet had several things in common. They all believed they had responded to the bugle call, no matter how faint. None spoke of politics or party. They came even though they did not have to -- no one really asked them to -- and they represent but a small fraction of their generation.

They have served, suffered, sacrificed and endured. America marks a number of patriotic moments at the onset of summer -- Memorial Day, D-Day, the Fourth of July. I hope most of us take time on these days to reflect on those past and present who have sacrificed. Sadly, this reflection should also remind us that this long twilight struggle will continue no matter how the Iraq war turns in the coming months.

If we are to survive as a nation with our values intact, then we must find leaders willing to make the call. Leaders who will call us to serve each other, to serve in our towns and cities, churches and schools and, if needed, in the military -- leaders who will urge us to care for these young veterans and their families in need of our help for many years to come.

This coming together to meet a challenge has always been one of our nation's greatest strengths, and we need that strength now.

Death of Nasrallah and Israel's Invasion of Lebanon

On 30 September, Israel confirmed that its troops had invaded Lebanon in what Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) called a “limited, localized and targeted” ground operation against Hezbollah – the Shia militant group that has become Israel’s focus in recent weeks. This incursion followed the killing of Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, by the IDF. This has threatened a major escalation in the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and risks dramatically altering geopolitics in the region.  

Israel also expanded its bombing campaign across Lebanon in recent weeks and killed Nasrallah in a massive airstrike on a residential area in southern Beirut. Hezbollah had established an underground command-and-control center below a multi-story apartment building. The Israelis used American two-thousand pound bombs in the attack.  

Iran launched a ballistic missile attack against Israel in response to Nasrallah’s death and the invasion of southern Lebanon. They also linked this attack to the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, a senior Hamas political leader during a visit to Tehran. Iran signaled the US that it does not want a wider war. In response Prime Minister Netanyahu said Tehran “made a big mistake, and it will pay for it.”  

Washington’s priorities now include defending Israel, American military forces in the region (numbering 40,000), and US civilians living in Lebanon and across the Middle East. “We are actively supporting defensive preparations to defend Israel against this attack. A direct military attack from Iran against Israel will carry severe consequences for Iran,” a White House official told reporters Tuesday morning.  

But why and how has the conflict escalated so quickly? Why did Israel shift its focus from Gaza and Hamas to northern Israel, Lebanon and Hezbollah? What actions will Israel take in response to the missile attack? And what greater fallout could we expect because of it? 

 The Israel-Hezbollah conflict  

Hezbollah was established as a Shia Islamist political party and military organization in Lebanon in 1985. For much of its existence, it has taken part in the proxy war between Iran and Israel, the South Lebanon conflict, and several other low-level hostilities on the Lebanese-Israeli border.  

But tensions escalated on 8 October 2023 when Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s leader, ordered his forces to begin missile, rocket, and artillery attacks against northern Israel. This was in support of the Hamas attack the day before that had resulted in the death of over a thousand Israeli civilians, the wounding of thousands more, and the seizure of over 200 hostages.  

Israel responded in kind and this “tit-for-tat” conflict has continue for the past year. Over 60,000 Israelis have been forced from their homes in northern Israel and an estimated 100,000 Lebanese have fled to Syria – while another 200,000 are displaced within the country. Nasrallah insisted attacks by his forces would continue until a ceasefire was achieved between Israel and Hamas. Despite the efforts of the US, UAE, and Egypt, achieving a ceasefire has been increasingly elusive.  

As fighting between Israel and Hamas lessened in the Gaza Strip over the past few weeks, the pressure on the Israeli government to end attacks by Hezbollah and allow Israeli citizens to return home mounted. The IDF leadership even described Hamas as a spent military force, and now characterizes it as largely a guerilla movement.  

With political pressure mounting to address the attacks in Israel’s north, the government’s cabinet agreed on 16 September that ending hostilities with Hezbollah was now of equal importance to destroying Hamas and securing the release of Israeli hostages. Consequently, the IDF began repositioning forces towards its northern frontier, and on Monday it announced that it had begun a ground operation in southern Lebanon.  

“In accordance with the decision of the political echelon, a few hours ago, the IDF began limited, localized, and targeted ground raids based on precise intelligence against Hezbollah terrorist targets and infrastructure in southern Lebanon,” the IDF said in a statement. “These targets are located in villages near the border and pose an immediate threat to Israeli communities in northern Israel.”  

Israel has since told people in about 25 Lebanese villages to evacuate, and Hezbollah's deputy leader Naim Qassem has said the group was ready for an Israeli ground offensive, warning that the battle "may be long". The US and its allies had even predicted that an Iranian attack was imminent in response to Israel’s escalation.  

Air alerts were issued across central Israel the day after the IDF’s announcement, and the country banned groups of 30 or more people from assembling nationwide. The Israel Defense Forces urged Israelis to "remain alert and precisely follow the home front command's instructions". On 1 October Tehran launched 180 ballistic missiles against Israel. The targets included three airfields and headquarters for Mossad – Israel’s intelligence service, but the attack was largely frustrated in a coordinated response between the US and Israeli forces.  

The death of Hassan Nasrallah  

Hassan Nasrallah, a Lebanese cleric, served as the secretary-general of Hezbollah for 32 years. Ironically, he came to power after the Israeli’s assassinated Abbas al-Musawi, who many Israeli security experts believed was a less effective leader than his successor. Nasrallah increased Hezbollah’s power and influence, while his predecessor had appeared unwilling to expand the group’s political operation in the aftermath of the Iran-Iraq War and the Lebanese Civil War.  

Many Shia Muslims listened closely to Nasrallah’s words and direction. He has been described as the “most powerful man in the Middle East” and as the “only Arab leader who actually does what he says he’s going to do”. His legacy will be connected to a certain aspect of Islamic and Arabic pride, his views and influence go a long way – as do the consequences of his assassination.  

It is important to remember that Nasrallah – who will likely be replaced by Sayyed Hashem Safieddine, head of HZH executive council – had long demanded that Israel cease to exist, calling it “a cancer that must be eradicated”. He opposed reconciliation between Israelis and Palestinians at various points and encouraged resistance in Gaza and the West Bank, though he emphasized that a two-state solution is a “Palestinian matter”.  

Still, in the aftermath of the 7 October attacks, he characterized the Hamas operation as heroic and called for the “liberation” of Jerusalem and directed attacks against Israel in solidary with the Palestinians. This is not a minor military operation. Hezbollah is a far superior military force to Hamas and has approximately 100,000 fighters – many of which are veterans of the Syrian civil war. The militant group is also estimated to have over 150,000 rockets and missiles in its arsenal.  

Nasrallah’s death is significant. The so-called Axis of Resistance that includes Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas, Shiite militia groups in Iraq, as well as Iran have reacted with outrage and sympathy. Many have promised further attacks against Israel, creating a multi-front war for the Jewish state. But his demise occurred after a series of preparatory steps by Israel.  

On 8 September, Israeli commandos conducted a special operations mission in Syria that destroyed a weapons laboratory. Israeli military leaders believed that Iran and the Lebanese militia Hezbollah planned to manufacture a new generation of precision missiles there.  

Nine days later thousands of pagers in the possession of Hezbollah leaders and operatives exploded across Beirut leaving many dead and seriously injured. The following day walkie talkies used by Hezbollah also exploded. It is widely believed this was orchestrated by Israeli intelligence services, and it left Hezbollah in chaos. Not only did it lose many leaders at all levels, but these attacks demonstrated the level of penetration Israel had achieved, forcing the militant group to be concerned about using any communications device.  

This was followed by increasing numbers of Israeli airstrikes in the days that followed that ultimately resulted in the killing of Nasrallah, numerous other Hezbollah leaders, an Iranian Quds Force General, and the destruction of a large portion of the missiles and launchers in Hezbollah’s arsenal that could threaten Israeli cities.  

The IDF strategy seems clear: Take out the group’s leadership, disrupt its command/control, and significantly reduce their military capabilities. Some would describe this as a strategy to “escalate to deescalate” or convince the new leadership of Hezbollah as well as its Iranian masters that they were not only incapable of executing a major attack against Israel but that such an attack could well lead to their destruction.  

But the elimination of Nasrallah was an “important step, but it is not the final one,” Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told Israeli military troops in northern Israel after his death was confirmed. He then appeared to telegraph the ground operation that was to come in his follow up statement: "In order to ensure the return of Israel’s northern communities, we will employ all of our capabilities.”  

Israel invades southern Lebanon  

The Biden administration’s efforts to secure a ceasefire with Hamas that might have resulted in Hezbollah halting its attacks has clearly failed. Washington also pushed for a 21-day ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel, but that has gone nowhere. It appears the administration believed a ceasefire agreement was supported by Netanyahu only to have him publicly repudiate it. It seems increasingly true that President Biden’s leverage over Netanyahu is limited. It is tough to ignore that the two leaders have not spoken in over a month.  

This is a difficult moment for the US and Israel. Washington has dispatched additional American forces to the region to help defend the country, as well as deploying units that can facilitate the evacuation of the roughly 86,000 Americans in Lebanon.  

An expanding conflict could also have an adverse impact on the upcoming American election, particularly if the US is dragged into a major war or is involved in a large-scale evacuation of American civilians from Lebanon as voters head to the polls.  

At this juncture, it is unclear how far this conflict might further escalate, despite Israel emphasizing that its military operation is “limited, localized and targeted”. To illustrate that point, the IDF shared a map showing where missile sirens sounded when Iran launched missiles toward Israel on Tuesday – the entire country was covered in red dots, and Israeli retaliation for Iran’s missile attack will likely occur during the next few days. 

Israel has certainly had success against Hezbollah. It does not appear that the militant group can currently organize and coordinate a response as effectively as it did prior to Israel’s actions. It continues to fire rockets, but not at the same rate.  

But there is a real fear in the region that this could be the start of something wider, and that history is repeating itself. Israeli troops have easily entered Lebanon in the past, but they have often found it very difficult to leave. It is also hard to ignore that Hezbollah – which means Party of God – is deeply ingrained in Lebanese society. It is often considered a state within the state that incurs much loyalty and favor, so what effect Israel’s invasion might have long term could prove dangerous.  

We must also remember that having a strong Hezbollah in Lebanon was a key aspect of Iran’s deterrence strategy. It was long considered the most powerful group in the Axis of Resistance. Without that deterrent, Iran may believe that it must respond massively to the expected Israeli attack, accelerate its efforts to acquire a nuclear weapon, and take greater actions across the region. This means further escalation, conflict and – possibly – war.